Coffee Price Forecast 2023: In its latest report on the USDA’s world coffee supply and demand outlook, the agency forecasts that global coffee production in the 2022-2023 crop year will recover and increase by 7.8 million bags (4.7%). ) compared with the previous crop to 175 million bags, mainly because Brazil’s arabica crop entered the year of high production on a “two-yearly” cycle.
Global coffee consumption is expected to increase by 1.8 million to 167 million bags, with the most significant increases in the European Union, the US, Japan and Brazil.
Coffee Exports Forecast 2023
Global coffee exports are forecast to increase by 1 million to 141.5 million bags, thanks to higher exports from Brazil and Indonesia. The export of green coffee was 118.2 million bags, up from 117.3 million bags of the previous crop. The remaining 18.3 million bags are instant coffee, and 5 million bags are roasted and ground coffee.
Ending stocks are expected to increase by 2.1 million bags to 34.7 million after a sharp drop in the previous season.
In Brazil, arabica production is forecast to increase by 5.1 million bags to 41.5 million bags. Most of the production areas are in a biennial production cycle, so the output will likely be higher next season. However, this production is still far below the peak of nearly 50 million bags in recent seasons.
Many arabica growing regions continue to recover from severe frosts in June and July 2021 and high temperatures and below-average rainfall through September 2021. Light frost was also observed last month, but only mild damage is expected.
Coffee Production Forecast 2023
In Vietnam, production is forecast at 30.9 million bags, down 700,000 from last year’s record harvest. The cultivated area is forecast unchanged from the previous year, with more than 95% of total production still robusta.
Vietnam’s coffee exports are forecast to decline by 1 million bags in the 2022-2023 crop year to 25 million bags, and ending stocks are almost unchanged at 3.5 million bags.
Colombia’s Arabica production is forecast to remain unchanged at 13 million bags under normal production conditions. The reason is attributed to farmers’ limited use of fertilizers due to the recent price spike.
Colombia heavily depends on imported fertilizer ingredients such as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. The Colombian Coffee Growers Federation (Fedecafe) has provided some fertilizer through its replanting program, but it is not enough to meet the total fertilizer needs of its members.
Colombia’s coffee exports are forecast to be similar to the previous crop at 11.8 million bags, mainly to the US and the European Union.
European and American coffee imports continue to increase
The European Union’s coffee imports in the coffee year 2022-2023 are forecast to increase by 1 million bags to 46 million bags and account for 40% of the world’s imported green coffee. Top suppliers include Brazil (40%), Vietnam (20%), Uganda (8%) and Honduras (7%).
The United States, the second largest importer of green coffee, is forecast to increase imports by 500,000 bags in the 2022-2023 season, to 25.5 million bags. Top suppliers include Brazil (30%), Colombia (19%), Vietnam (10%), and Honduras (7%). Ending stocks are forecast to increase by 300,000 bags to 6.5 million bags.
Coffee Price Forecast 2023
According to estimates, in June 2022, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached 145 thousand tons, worth 335 million USD, up 1.9% in volume and 3.2% in value compared to May 2022. compared to June 2021, it increased by 13.3% in volume and 34.7% in value. Generally, in the first 6 months of 2022, Vietnam’s coffee exports are estimated at approximately 1.03 million tons, worth US$2.32 billion, up 21.7% in volume and 49.7% in value compared to the same period in 2021.
How will coffee prices change when coffee output recovers?
In June 2022, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee was estimated at $2,309 per ton, up 1.3% compared to May 2022 and 18.9% higher than June 2021. Generally, in the first six months of 2022, the average export price of Vietnam’s coffee reached 2,258 USD/ton, up 23.1% over the same period in 2021.
In terms of categories: In May and the first five months of 2022, exports of Robusta, Arabica and processed coffee increased compared to the same period in 2021, excluding Excelsa coffee. According to General Department of Customs statistics, Robusta coffee exports in May 2022 reached 125.1 thousand tons, worth USD 243.97 million, up 12% in volume and 37.1% in value. Compared to May 2021.
In the first five months of 2022, Robusta coffee exports reached 792.4 thousand tons, worth 1.56 billion USD, up 27.2% in volume and 60.5% in value over the same period in 2021. Exports of Robusta coffee to many main markets increased, including Germany, Belgium, Italy, Spain, the United States, Russia, the UK, and the Netherlands. In contrast, exports of Robusta coffee to Japan, Algeria, China, Malaysia, and France decreased.